Published in Science, the UM-led study predicts a near-unrecognizable Arctic landscape by 2100 if global commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) remain unchanged.

Led by Julienne Stroeve, Canada 150 Research Chair in Climate Forcing of Sea Ice, and Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Canada Excellence Research Chair in Arctic Sea Ice, Freshwater-Marine Coupling and Climate Change, the research highlights that the Arctic is heating at four times the global average rate, posing significant environmental and socio-economic challenges.

Dr Julienne Stroeve

Accelerating Changes and Their Consequences

“The Arctic is warming at four times the rate of the rest of the planet,” said Stroeve. “At 2.7 degrees Celsius of global warming, this scenario would dramatically reshape the Arctic, the fastest-warming region on earth.”

Key projections of the study include:

• Almost every day will be hotter than the extreme temperatures of the past.
• The Arctic Ocean will be ice-free for several months each summer.
• The part of Greenland’s ice sheet that stays above freezing for over a month will be four times larger than before, accelerating rising sea levels.

While these transformations pose severe risks, the researchers emphasize that immediate and coordinated global action can help mitigate the impacts and preserve the Arctic’s crucial role in the Earth’s climate system.

Solutions for a Sustainable Future

This study underscores the opportunities for proactive intervention to avoid these dire environmental consequences. Governments, industries, and individuals all have roles to play in reducing GHGs, expanding conservation areas, and integrating Indigenous knowledge into climate strategies.

“If we act now with bold climate policies and innovative technologies, we can still make a difference,” says Stroeve. “The Arctic is a key part of the global climate system, and its future truly lies in our hands.”

Continued scientific research is crucial in shaping effective policies. Monitoring Arctic changes will improve climate models and adaptation strategies.  

“We must combine scientific advancements with community-driven solutions,” Stroeve says. “By working together, we can develop strategies that not only protect Arctic ecosystems but also support the people who depend on them.”

Global Climate Action and Collaborative Research Needed

The research, supported by funding from the Canada 150 Research Chairs Program and other institutions, utilized data from NSIDC’s Sea Ice Today and Ice Sheets Today projects to provide a comprehensive overview of Arctic changes. Collaborators included the University of Ottawa, Northern Arizona University, and the University of Hamburg.

While these transformations pose severe consequences, the researchers emphasize that immediate and coordinated global efforts can help mitigate the impacts and preserve the Arctic’s crucial role in the Earth’s climate system for future generations.

But their study says that could have “severe consequences” for potential prey whales such as belugas, narwhals and bowheads, that lead researcher Colin Garroway called “slow, chubby and delicious.”

Garroway, an evolutionary geneticist at the University of Manitoba, said in an interview that the situation was complex — the Arctic orcas have the potential to upend ecosystems as apex predators, even as they merit conservation concern.

To read the entire article, please follow the link to APTN News. 

And it’s getting lower on polar bears.

There are now about 600 polar bears in the Western Hudson Bay, one of the most threatened of the 20 populations of the white beasts. That’s about half the number of 40 years ago, says York, senior director of research and policy at Polar Bears International. His latest study, with a team of scientists from various fields, shows that if the world doesn’t cut back more on emissions of heat-trapping gases “we could lose this population entirely by the end of the century,” he says.

To read more about the work Dr. Julienne Stroeve is doing in the Arctic, please visit the Associated Press.

These major impacts would not be seen if only a few years temporarily crossed the 1.5 C threshold.

Alex Crawford, an assistant professor at the University of Manitoba, specializes in Arctic climate change. He said local records can help bring awareness to the issue of climate change.

To read more from Alex Crawford, please visit The Weather Network.

The Churchill Marine Observatory, located adjacent to the Port of Churchill, is intended to help detect oil spills and collect data on their mitigation and impact.

“As climate change is occurring here, we’re expecting more shipping through this deep water port in Churchill, and that might bring some accidents along with it,” the project’s co-lead, CJ Mundy, told 680 CJOB’s The Start.

To read the full article, please visit Global News Winnipeg. 

The report, “Ice-free period too long for Southern and Western Hudson Bay polar bear populations if global warming exceeds 1.6 to 2.6C”  published June 13, 2024, in Communications Earth and Environment was developed in collaboration with researchers from the University of Toronto Scarborough, National Snow and Ice Data Center, The Arctic University of Norway, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Environment and Climate Change Canada, and Polar Bears International.

As it is increasingly unlikely that the world will meet the most ambitious Paris Agreement target of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, the team of biologists and climate scientists came together, using the latest science, to reevaluate the future of Hudson Bay’s sea ice, polar bears, and seals. The report analyzes various climate warming scenarios if greenhouse gas emissions continue and we surpass 2°C warming above pre-industrial levels, the upper limit set in the Paris Agreement.

“If we fail to limit global warming to less than two degrees Celsius, we will lose Hudson Bay’s populations of polar bears,” says lead author Professor Julienne Stroeve, University of Manitoba, adding, “The disappearance of the Southern Hudson Bay polar bears is imminent, with Western Hudson Bay not far behind. Our research underscores the rapid changes human activity imparts to our climate. It’s incumbent upon us to understand the impending impact on our natural world, so that we can make policy decisions informed by science.”  

A Comprehensive Approach for an Interconnected Ecosystem

This report offers the first holistic look at the future of Hudson Bay’s ecosystem—encompassing polar bears and seals alike—and predicts a polar bear extirpation, which means a localized extinction, between the 2030s and 2060s. Unlike previous reports analyzing partial regions, often looking retrospectively at historical data, this report provides a comprehensive examination of the future of the Hudson Bay area. This shift addresses changes in sea ice thickness and snow thickness, which are critical for polar bear hunting, polar bear denning, and seal pup denning. 

This study analyzes sea ice thickness to determine polar bear survival, which has never been done before. Previous approaches assessed sea ice coverage, which authors found could overestimate polar bear survival by 50 days. Sea ice is not always thick enough for a polar bear to use for successful hunting, as seen in this video clip, therefore this report analyzes ice thickness of at least 10 cm – minimum for supporting a male polar bear hunting.

Key Results: Polar Bear Survival Depends on Melting Ice

Polar bear survival is directly related to Arctic sea ice, as they need the ice platform to hunt their main prey, seals. When polar bears are forced onto land by melting ice, terrestrial food is an insufficient replacement, with prior research finding that survival and reproduction are constrained by bears’ capacity to fast. This new report finds that under 2°C of warming, southern Hudson Bay will be ice-free for 174 to 182 days, which would impair reproduction and strain survival. Western Hudson Bay will maintain sea ice for longer, with 163 to 168 ice-free days. Analyzing the projections from 20 climate models, the Western Hudson Bay region becomes an unsuitable habitat at 2.2°C or 2.6°C. The southern Hudson Bay sub-population faces a more dire projection, with ice-free periods becoming excessively long for most bears at 1.6°C to 2.1°C. Therefore, if the Paris Agreement is breached, and the world surpasses 2°C of warming, this report finds that the southern population will disappear, and the whole of Hudson Bay’s polar bears will be at or near their survival limit. If we do surpass 2°C global warming, the timing of that breach and localized extinction depends on the rate of greenhouse emissions by human activities over the coming decades. 

“Unregulated emissions could mean we see the disappearance of the Southern Hudson Bay subpopulation as early as the 2030s,” says assistant professor and co-author, Alex Crawford.
“Changing policies to achieve more aggressive emissions reductions could delay the breach of the 2°C threshold to the 2060s, maintaining the survival of Hudson Bay’s polar bears.”

This map illustrates the boundaries of the Western Hudson Bay and Southern Hudson Bay polar bear populations (Credit: Alex Crawford)

Significance of Hudson Bay’s Polar Bears

Hudson Bay is home to two of the world’s 19 polar bear subpopulations, representing the world’s southernmost polar bear populations, which have long been considered an indicator of how the rest of the world’s polar bear subpopulations will fare in the future. Hudson Bay’s polar bears are the best-studied polar bears in the world, and this report includes models using over 50 years of data since monitoring of Hudson Bay’s polar bears began in the 1970s. Beyond serving as a “canary in the coal mine” for other Arctic regions, these polar bears hold significant cultural value for communities around Hudson Bay.

“This report is more detailed and alarming than previous studies, reinforcing that Hudson Bay’s polar bears are not on a good trajectory unless significant emissions mitigation measures are implemented,” says co-author Geoff York, senior director of research and policy at Polar Bears International, adding, “This cross-disciplinary, forward-looking and comprehensive analysis of all of Hudson Bay provides more actionable insights for policymakers and wildlife managers.” 

Implications for Seals and Other Species: 

As rainfall, rather than snowfall, increases in the Subarctic and Arctic, it will be more difficult for both seals and polar bears to make dens to give birth to offspring, with rain potentially washing away their dens. There are three seal species in Hudson Bay, of which the ring seals are polar bears’ preferred prey. This report highlights how less snow can impact seal pup survival, as ring seals need at least 32 cm of snow depth to dig lairs for their pups. Future studies could look at the sea ice thickness needed for other species, like caribou and walrus that travel across the ice. Future research may analyze future sea ice roughness, which determines where snow sticks and accumulates, and therefore where seals can den. 

This research underscores the importance of swift greenhouse gas emissions reduction, and multi-disciplinary, holistic approaches to research, management, and policy. 

To listen to the full interview, please visit BBC radio’s podcast of  What’s happening to arctic ice?

One issue is that the saltier ice may melt more quickly in the summer.

Co-author Professor Julienne Stroeve (UCL Earth Sciences, the University of Manitoba, Canada, and the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center), said, “While our study focuses on how Arctic warming affects global temperature change, the local impacts should not be overlooked. A 2 C temperature rise globally would result in a 4 C annual mean rise in the Arctic, and a 7 C rise in winter, with profound consequences for local people and ecosystems.

Read here

“Having our design backed by Tesla has provided a sense of confidence in our work and serves as a clear example of the value behind what we are doing. Being able to work with a company of that caliber is an opportunity very few can say they have had, so I think we all have a sense of eagerness and excitement to make the most of this partnership.” -Kaya Jones, Accumulator Design Lead

Only 67 of 160 teams who applied, received sponsorship. The team received word that Tesla will ship the cells from the Gigafactory in Nevada in December. The new battery will be used in the design of the vehicle for the competition in 2025. Even though the sponsorship won’t be used for this year’s design, receiving it has provided significant motivation to the team.

“The Tesla Sponsorship marks a significant milestone for our FSAE Electric Team. Tesla’s support validates our team’s hard work and helps us develop a better electric vehicle and showcase Manitoba’s innovation on a global stage.” -Antony Zaky, Vehicle Control Software Lead

The team is currently assembling their vehicle as fast as possible so they can test it as much as they can prior to the competition in June of 2024 against 75 other teams. The university teams come from all over North America and come together to prove that their innovative design is the best in both static and dynamic events. The UMSAE Formula Electric team placed 14^th out of 55 in 2022. Their goal this year is to be in the top ten.

“The feeling that comes with knowing that our team is endorsed by an iconic name like Tesla is immensely rewarding, and it absolutely justifies the amount of work that every member dedicates to this project.” -Brett Stevens, Executive Chair of UMSAE